I am in Toronto now for SMX Analytics, largely moderated by Danny Sullivan and Vanessa Fox.

I am so surprised to hear the consistent references to high bounce rate as problems.  This seems irresponsible and short-sighted, as though a user who only accesses one page on your site is a failure of some kind.

Consider Google’s “I’m Feeling Lucky” Button

This search option is there for when you think you know exactly the destination in mind, or just want to add a bit of chance to the search.  Regardless, I would argue that at least 25% of searches are users just looking for one page that has all the information they want.

One Page Visits That Should Not Be More

• “Definition” searches.  This is a common motive (see my 10 Motives of Search).
• Contact info - no reason for two pages here.  I’m feeling lucky!
• Wikipedia searches.  The pages on that site tell a story from A - Z on one massive scrolling page.
• “First Touch” comparison, research searches.  If you are price comparing, or skimming through options in order to round up a bunch of sites to consider for a purchase, you are less likely to go deep on the first touch.  A bounce here just means you were considered.

The fact is that people want to get where they are going fast, and leave fast, unless you have the unique privilege of running a site like Facebook or ESPN that has a valid reason to engage people.  I am not saying bounce rate has no value as a data source.  I am saying it can be worse than no value, it can give you entirely the wrong picture.  Be careful with bounce.

Measure Impact, Not Bounce

Instead of bounce, consider:

• Time on site
• Referring keyword (was it a “one night stand” keyword?  Maybe they found what they were looking for and have no more reason to come back)
• Return visits - maybe the bounce was a first touch and the user is coming back.

American marketing agencies are soon going to find out that no matter how good their campaigns are, how many tests they do, or how much money they spend, a surprisingly high number of their performance driven campaigns in China are going to fail.

Why?

There is a lot of talk about China’s economic growth.  American companies are excited to have a Chinese presence.  But the truth is so many companies want to be there but don’t really know why.  There is a sense that something is about to erupt, and not being there equates to missing out.

But is China really that promising?  Sure, China has had double digit growth for years.  But it wasn’t the Chinese who were consuming.  So, before American companies rush over there to sell the Chinese products and services that were selling well elsewhere, let’s stop for a moment to recognize that the Chinese are not a consumer culture.

Stephen Roach, the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, called Americans, “the most over-extended consumer in world history.” And now that Americans are no longer buying so many Chinese exports, China will have to find another consumer base for its enormous production machine. And they know it won’t come from within.

As Thomas Friedman wrote:
“China has no real Social Security, health insurance or unemployment insurance. Without that social safety net, it’s hard to see how Chinese don’t end up saving most of their stimulus.”

In the SEM agency world, having a presence in China is important to prospective clients.  This presence represents the gateway to a huge, seemingly untapped market.

The problem, however, is that these agencys’ clients are going to realize that the Chinese will require, according to Fred Hu, chairman for Greater China for Goldman Sachs, a huge “cultural and structural” shift before they start consuming the largely unnecessary products that Americans love.

China will prove to be the largest market, but so frugal that some marketers will realize that it isn’t worth trying.  For example, Adobe Systems essentially ignores the market, recognize that pirating is out of control there, the Chinese government is not helping police the piracy, and that the Chinese consumer doesn’t have the money or mindset to pay for the software.

A wave of companies are about to discover what Adobe knew ten years ago.  China is more stingy than it is large.

I was watching that wonderful show Mad Men this wkend about an ad agency in the 50’s.

Lucky Strike was a client.  A report came out in Readers Digest that introduced people to the idea that maybe smoking was harmful.

The Creative Director (CD) was taking a lot of heat from the client over how he would respond to the news.

The CD didn’t want to respond to the article, and so the meeting got very heated and the owners of Lucky Strike stood up, angrily, and began to leave the room.

In a last act of salvation, the Creative Director said, “tell me, what is the first step in making your cigarettes?”

The owner said, “we take the tobacco and we toast it.”

The CD wrote on the wall, “Lucky Strike, It’s Toasted”.

The owner said, “so what, all the other companies toast their tobacco as well.”

The CD said, “yea, but they don’t tell you that, so they don’t.  When the conversation with your consumers is going somewhere bad, change the topic and say something irrelevant that sounds good.”

It’s Toasted.  Account retained.